10 predictions for 2009

At this time is it customary (albeit slightly frivolous) to make some predictions for the year to come.  So , here are my predictions (mostly economic) or 2009, some good, some not so… :

  1. UK retail businesses will be hit very hard, especially those who have not adapted their business model to adopt or defend against the relentless growth of low costs base internet based businesses.
  2. The UK housing market will bottom out in Q3/Q4 2009 and will stagnate for 6 months before seeing very small gains in 2010.
  3. Many UK retail/domestic bank accounts will no longer be free to own and run, as the high street banks, under significant pressure to rebuild balance sheets and make a profit, will have to slash services that they cannt make any money at, and with interest rates so low, personal accounts that are currently “free” due to historically high fees and lack of credit interest will have to change.
  4. The UK will experience a significant reduction in EU residents coming here for work , as the value of the pound against the euro makes the UK a much less attractive place to come and work, leading to a net reduction in the working population and increased pay for those working in businesses in the hospitality and service sectors.
  5. There will be public service strikes not seen for many years, as the public sector contracts in size and there are pay rise freezes across both public and private sectors.  No general election though until 2010…
  6. After a record cold year in 2008, the 2009 UK summer will be long and hot with more bbq opportunities than for many years.
  7. There will be some fantastic new .com business startups supplying subscription based geolocation services using GPS in mobile phones
  8. The “must have” electronic gadget for 2009 will run on open source
  9. Getting wild now…there will be a “once in a century” scientific breakthrough in physics, probably in connection with energy supply or storage, that will energise the stock markets.
  10. UK Manufacturing may well actually fair better than finance, retail, construction and the service sector in 2009, and finally, as every good entrepreneur believes, Mercian Labels will outperform the competition in 2009 and have another record year!

Feel free to comment away or add your own – the wilder the better.

Adrian

(for the record these views are my own and not those of Mercian Labels Ltd !)

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